Thursday, June 26, 2014

What is the future for energy and development ?

The global energy crisis coupled with the threats of climate change bring into sharp focus both opportunities and challenges for developing countries.
 Developing countries have to address the increasing energy demands of growing economies, as well as address energy poverty issues often highlighted by extreme disparities in income. They also need to deal with the real and potential impacts of climate change.
 In addition to these challenges is the global imperative to reduce carbon emissions in order to prevent climate change. While developing nations have thus far been sheltered from obligations to reduce carbon emissions, we cannot anticipate that this situation will continue. Within this context developing nations need to follow a very different development path from that established by first world countries.
 This development path is a low energy, low carbon and generally a resource efficient one. Economies across the world need to change the assumptions of this paradigm in order to build a sustainable reality. As financial and environmental impacts soar, the real costs of resource inputs and of waste generation need to increasingly be taken into account. These factors are making efficiency, conservation, reuse, recycling and renewable energy sources primary considerations for a healthy economy. In an attempt to reduce resource inputs and environmental impacts, some developed nations have managed to ‘decouple’ economic growth from energy consumption essentially resulting in energy inputs that decrease with economic growth.
 This has been achieved through technology and behavior change to improve efficiency and by closing the energy loop in production (e.g. recapturing heat energy released in the production process to then power production).
 Energy-poor countries, such as Japan, have been very successful at achieving this. Implementation of high energy-efficiency and the use of renewable resources are also evident in energy-poor developing countries such as the island states of Reunion and Mauritius.
 As such, under conditions of necessity, pursuing efficient and renewable energy paths is possible. There is potential to greatly improve energy efficiency and
reduce carbon emissions in many upper-middle income developing countries which have a substantial industrial base. For example, South Africa produces a mere US$1.06 in economic value for every 1 kWh of electricity consumed whereas Brazil manages twice and Mexico four times this level of energy efficiency.

What is happening in our cities?
Over the last 20 years, urban centers have experienced dramatic growth. Today half of the world’s total population (around three billion people) live in urban settlements. Developing countries in particular are undergoing rapid change from rural to urban-based economies as they are transformed by their urbanising populations. There are marked differences in the level and pace of urbanisation within less developed regions of the world. Latin America and the Caribbean are highly urbanised, with 78% of their populations living in cities in 2007. Asia and Africa are less urbanised, both with around 40% of their populations living in urban areas. While currently less urbanised, Africa and Asia are experiencing rapid rates of urbanisation.
Consequently by 2050, about 62% of their inhabitants will live in urban areas. At that time, 89% of the population of Latin America and the Caribbean will be urban.

In addition, over the next 30 years population growth will be nearly entirely concentrated in urban areas in the developing world. Much of the current debate regarding sustainable cities focuses on the formidable problems for the world’s largest urban agglomerations. However, smaller urban settlements are also growing rapidly and the majority of all urban dwellers reside in such smaller urban centers.

There is potential to greatly improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions in many upper-middle income developing countries which have a substantial industrial base. For example, South Africa produces a mere US$1.06 in economic value for every 1 kWh of electricity consumed whereas Brazil manages twice and Mexico four times this level of energy efficiency

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